Five quarterbacks were selected in the first round of this year's NFL draft, and the Denver Broncos selected the last of the bunch in Oregon’s Bo Nix. Many draft experts and TV analysts believed Nix was a reach in the first round, leading to Denver garnering lackluster draft grades in the media and feedback.
The general media sentiment was that Denver was desperate to take a quarterback in the top 12 despite the majority of the same outlets believing Nix was a fantastic fit with Sean Payton. Not just because he was the last first-rounder taken, the former Duck has the most to prove out of the 2024 quarterback class, and today we're going to talk about a few reasons why.
Again, virtually every major NFL outlet considered Nix a perfect fit for Payton and his system. However, because Denver took him at 12, the selection has been under intense scrutiny, adding to the pressure on Nix. Let's examine a few comments from different outlets.
“I figured Nix would be in the mix in the top dozen picks because of his experience (61 collegiate starts), toughness and mobility. Denver badly needed a new quarterback after the departure of Russell Wilson, and Nix was the top remaining passer in the top two tiers at the position. He does not have the arm talent of the quarterbacks picked ahead of him, and he lacks elite quickness as a runner. He also struggled with his consistency early in his career at Auburn, but he bounced back in a new environment at Oregon. Head coach Sean Payton and quarterbacks coach Davis Webb probably liked the young man's combination of efficient play and competitive spirit, but it will be interesting to see if he has the game to warrant the 12th overall selection.” — Chad Reuter/NFL.com
“The run on quarterbacks continues. Denver had one of the worst quarterback rooms in the NFL on paper. It’s not a surprise to see them address the position, though the way they did it — taking the QB6 at 12th overall — is a bit surprising. Nix excelled at getting the ball out quickly and accurately in the Oregon offense over the past two seasons. His 70.0% accurate pass rate since 2022 ranks second among Power Five quarterbacks with at least 250 pass attempts.” — Pro Football Focus
“I don't love Nix, but I get the pick. Desperation forces teams to pick quarterbacks earlier than they should. Sean Payton obviously sees Drew Brees in him, but this is way early. Why not trade down and get him later?” — Pete Prisco/CBS Sports
The grades were C and below. Everyone has their valuations of specific prospects and where they should be drafted, and the consensus is that Nix was a reach in Round 1. Through all these quotes, Nix's Auburn tenure was the biggest influence on his grades, arm talent, running ability, and draft stock.
Nix had a rough time in Auburn, throwing for less than 20 touchdowns in each of his three seasons there and only eclipsed 2,500 yards in his first season, although he was named SEC Rookie of the Year. He didn’t mesh very well with the coaching staff at Auburn after the guy who recruited him left, leading to many inconsistencies in his play.
Most outlets view Nix's Auburn resume as an anchor weighing him down as a prospect. However, under Dan Lanning in Oregon, Nix grew into the quarterback that made him a first-round pick.
Nix ran an efficient and quick passing offense almost flawlessly, boosting his statistical output immensely. He threw for more yards and touchdowns in his two years in Eugene — 8,101 yards and 74 touchdowns — than his three years combined at Auburn — 7,251 yards and 39 touchdowns. Nix will get killed for taking longer to develop, but second-overall pick Jayden Daniels, who also played five seasons, rarely, if ever, gets any criticism for his time at Arizona State.
There is some concern with Nix’s arm talent, but it’s more about velocity than how deep he can throw. You’d like to see more zip on the ball as the windows close much faster in the NFL, but we’ll have to wait until training camp to see how much mustard he can put on his throws.
As for throwing it deep, there’s no genuine issue, as Nix has thrown several bombs downfield, especially in Oregon. Payton isn’t going to ask Nix to throw deep consistently, anyway.
The negativity about Nix's running ability is strange, to say the least. At Oregon, he rushed for 744 yards and 20 touchdowns, which is solid, and it’s not like it was his primary function as a quarterback.
Anything Denver gets out of Nix in the running game is a bonus, and although he’s no Daniels as a runner, he's a very underrated athlete. It’s a lazy argument to knock a quarterback for his running ability unless that’s a key part of his game. Nix could project like Alex Smith as a runner, not transcendent on the ground, but can get you yards when called upon.
Following the draft, it emerged that both the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 13, and the Los Angeles Rams at 19 were heavily interested in selecting Nix in Round 1. Denver got killed for taking him at 12, but imagine if the Rams or Raiders had taken him.
What’s the narrative then? Are they facing as much backlash as Denver, or are they geniuses?
We’ll never know. The fact is that Nix was Payton’s guy from the beginning, and it was better to take him than roll the dice and miss out entirely despite how media draft “experts” had him valued.
With all the pathetic grades, hang-ups about his time at Auburn, questions about his arm and running prowess, and draft pedigree, Nix has the most to prove out of the five quarterbacks selected in the first round this season. But with Payton in his corner, the Broncos rookie will have a fighting chance to prove that he belongs in the NFL as a starting-caliber signal-caller.
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